Aplicação do modelo regional de mesoscala MM5 no estudo do ciclone tropical Hudah de Abril de 2000

Abstract

The numerical weather forecast focuses on the description of physical phenomena in the atmosphere based on mathematical equations, solving them in order to predict the future state of the atmosphere. The numerical weather forecasting models can be divided, according to their area of coverage, regional and global models. Global models are used not only for atmospheric forecasting, but models, we have the global model of NCEP and ECMWF. In turn, the regional models work on a smaller geographical area, they can work with a higher resolution, which allows taking into account local factors such as topography and hydrography. There are several regional models (limited area models), the most used being MM5, ETA, WRF, HIRLAM and RAMS. In this work, the simulation of the cyclone Hudah is made (the posterior one) using the MM5 model. An approach is made about the parts that make up the model, its physical options and horizontal resolution and a particular attention is paid to not study the model's sensitivity to physical parameters. Parameterizations are chosen according to the results presented in the different studies analyzed. It makes a comparative analysis of the results of the MM5 model and the data observed by INAM during the five days of integration. The results produced are in agreement with the observations, which validates the MM5 models in the forecast of cyclones.(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)