Contribuição das exportações agrícolas no crescimento económico de Moçambique (1980-2022)

Abstract

This study assesses the contribution of agricultural exports to Mozambique's economic growth between 1980 and 2022, based on the aggregate production function of Solow (1956) and Ram (1985), and applying the cointegration methodology of Johansen and Juselius (1990). Its relevance stems from the historical importance of the agricultural sector and the lack of empirical evidence on the impact of exports on GDP. The theoretical framework is based on classical, neoclassical, and modern theories of international trade and the export-led growth approach. Previous studies show divergent results, reflecting structural differences and the volatility of agricultural prices. We used annual data from the World Development Indicators for real GDP, total exports, agricultural and non-agricultural, labor, capital, imports, and consumption. Statistics indicate an average GDP of USD 8 billion and agricultural exports of USD 59 million, with positive correlations with GDP, stronger for total exports. The analysis of short- and long-term effects is expected to contribute to public policies capable of boosting export sectors with greater economic and social impact.