Redistribuição espacial de camarão de profundidade (Haliporoides triarthrus e Aristaeomorpha foliacea) face aos efeitos das alterações climáticas ao longo da zona económica exclusiva de Moçambique (2019-2024)

Abstract

This study presents an analysis of the ecology and spatial distribution of the deep-sea shrimps Haliporoides triarthrus and Aristaeomorpha foliacea in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Mozambique. These species have high economic and ecological value, playing an important role in the sustainability of deep-sea trawl fisheries. To understand the relationship between occurrence and environmental variables, biological catch data were integrated with physico-chemical and climatological information, allowing for the assessment of spatial and temporal patterns. Statistical modelling, based on Generalised Additive Models (GAM), made it possible to estimate the influence of environmental factors such as temperature, depth, salinity and current velocity on the abundance and distribution of the shrimps. In addition to the current analysis, projections were carried out under different climate change scenarios, using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In the optimistic scenario (SSP1-2.6), which assumes a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, relative stability was observed in the potential distribution of the species, suggesting some resilience to environmental changes. In the pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5), characterised by high emissions and pronounced global warming, the results indicated significant changes in distribution patterns, with a potential shift of suitable habitats and risks of reduction in areas of higher catch. The results highlight the vulnerability of deep-sea species to climate change and emphasise the importance of adaptive fisheries management, capable of anticipating changes in resource availability. Thus, this study contributes to the understanding of the impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity in Mozambique, providing support for the conservation of deep-sea ecosystems and for the socio-economic sustainability of the communities that depend on this activity.