Detecção e previsão de trovoadas: uso do tefigrama na análise da instabilidade atmosférica

Abstract

Thunderstorms are intense atmospheric phenomena that can cause significant socioeconomic impacts.. This study aimed to analyse the use of the tephigram as a tool for detecting and forecasting thunderstorms, with an emphasis on assessing atmospheric instability. Theoretical concepts of convection, the structure and interpretation of the tephigram, and the main thermodynamic indices used in forecasting were addressed.The methodology was based on the use of the MetPy library for tephigram generation and index calculation, using data from the ERA5 reanalysis. The case study focused on a thunderstorm event that occurred on 12 January 2025 in the city of Maputo. The results indicated a highly convective environment, with high CAPE (2731.7 J/kg), low CIN (-12.2 J/kg), and a high surface mixing ratio (20.61 g/kg). There were also significant vertical wind shear and instability indices such as KI and LI above critical thresholds.It is concluded that the tephigram, combined with computational tools like MetPy, provides an efficient and accessible approach for instability analysis, even in regions with limited radiosonde data. Keywords: Tephigram; Atmospheric instability; Thunderstorms; Convection; MetPy; ERA5