Impacto da dívida pública interna sobre o investimento privado doméstico em Moçambique (2000-2022)

Abstract

Public debt data in Mozambique reveal a growing trend in internal debt over the years, with a rate of approximately 24% per year. This This fact is relevant as it can have a significant influence on the domestic private investment. This research analyzes the impact of domestic public debt on private investment in Mozambique from 2000 to 2022. This is based on the estimation of the model econometric model of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) type and the Error Correction (MCE) for estimating short-term coefficients, using data of time series on a quarterly frequency, which results in a sample of 92 observations. Considering the hypothesis that the growing and persistent trend of debt in the government in the internal market causes a reduction in domestic private investment in Mozambique, the estimated model was developed based on five (5) variables. The variable dependent is credit to the economy for investment as a proxy for private investment domestic. The independent variables include credit to the government, which serves as a proxy for internal public debt (most relevant independent variable), the prime rate, inflation and the gross domestic product. All variables, except inflation, which presents some values negative values, were transformed into logarithmic form. Depending on the methodology used, there were reasons to state that both in the short and in the long term, domestic public debt generates a negative and significant impact on the domestic private investment in Mozambique, therefore corroborating the hypothesis of crowding out, although with a statistically reduced magnitude. This positioning was based on the results of the estimation of the econometric model, which indicated that when 1% increase in credit to the government, credit to the economy for investment responds with a reduction of around 0.09% in the short term and 0.011% in the long term. These results highlight the need to adopt fiscal policies aimed at containing the domestic debt and the stimulus to domestic private investment.(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)