Análise espaço - temporal da distribuição da gravidez na adolescência em Moçambique no período compreendido entre 2011 a 2020

Abstract

Adolescence corresponds to the period between 10 and 19 years of age. This phase is unders- tood as a transitional stage between childhood and adulthood, marked by various physiological, emotional, and social changes. Pregnancy during this stage poses a significant problem, as it compromises the development of young girls, often leading to school dropout, social margina- lization, and the perpetuation of the cycle of poverty. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of the incidence of early pregnancy in the districts of Mozambique between 2011 and 2020, using data from the 2022 Demographic Health Survey. For this analysis, fully Bayesian modeling was used, applying the Poisson regression model with a spatial structure of the Conditional Autoregressive type (Conditional Autoregressive-CAR). This method allowed the consideration of spatial depen- dence among neighboring districts and enabled a more precise capture of regional variations in the incidence of early pregnancy throughout the study period. The Bayesian model was fitted using OpenBUGS version 3.2.3, while ArcGIS version 10.3.1 was used for the cartographic visualization of the results. The results of this study revealed a consistent geographical pattern throughout the decade analyzed, showing a higher relative risk of adolescent pregnancy inci- dence in almost the entire country, especially in the northern and central regions. This spatial pattern remained stable over time, suggesting that these areas concentrate specific vulnerability factors that contribute to the occurrence of adolescent pregnancy