Análise da influência da balança comercial sobre o crescimento económico em Moçambique no período de 2002 (1°Trim) a 2020 (4°Trim)

Abstract

According to Castel-Branco and Ossemane (2010), Mozambique's trade balance faces a chronic trade deficit, that is, it has shown negative balances for more than three decades, which may negatively influence the economic growth process. In turn, one of the central objectives of any Government is to promote economic growth, especially sustainable growth. In this context, the present study analyzes the influence of the relationship between the trade balance and economic growth in Mozambique, in the period from the 1st Quarter of 2002 to the 4th Quarter of 2020. For this, a theoretical and empirical analysis was carried out that supports the relationship between international trade and economic growth. Theoretical and empirical frameworks have shown that the relationship between these variables is not unanimous, although there is more evidence of a positive relationship. The inflow of foreign direct investment (control variable) affects economic growth endogenously. To measure the effects of the trade balance on economic growth in the short and long term, qualitative and quantitative hypothetical-deductive methods were used (Vergara, 2006). The empirical analysis was carried out based on the Vector Auto-Regressive Error Correction Model (VECM), after verifying that the series are stationary in the first difference and that there is at least one cointegration equation, using quarterly data that comprised a sample of 76 observations. The results obtained show that the trade balance positively influences economic growth in the short term and negatively in the long term. In the short term, it is estimated that an increase of USD 1000 in the trade balance, on average, generates an increase of approximately 1.41% in economic growth after 2 quarters. On the other hand, an increase of the same proportion in the trade balance implies a reduction in economic growth of more than 100% in the long term. Based on these conclusions, it is recommended that the Government create trade policies that truly capitalize on local production and promote sustainable investments, to ensure the sustainability of economic growth via the trade balance, especially in the long term.