Efeito das mudanças climáticas no impacto da inflação sobre o crescimento económico em Moçambique (1994 a 2023)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of climate change on the impact of inflation on economic growth in Mozambique. Its specific objectives consist of measuring the impact of inflation and climate change on Mozambique's economic growth; determining the direct and indirect effect of climate change on the impact of inflation on Mozambique's economic growth; testing the hypothesis of climate inflation and feedback between climate change, inflation and economic growth; and comparing the impact of inflation and climate change on economic growth in Mozambique. As a methodology, the neoclassical model of endogenous economic growth was estimated, in which inflation and climate change are considered factors of total productivity. The results and fundamental conclusions of the study suggest that: inflation has a positive impact on Mozambique's economic growth, while climate change does not; climate change does not have an indirect effect on the impact of inflation on economic growth, but has a direct effect because it reduces the positive impact of inflation on economic growth, which suggests evidence of the phenomenon; Mozambique's economic growth is still positively influenced by the quality of institutions and the interest rate, but negatively by the terms of trade. The study recommends prudent fiscal and monetary policies with inflation targeting that avoid excessive inflation control, as well as prudent policies regarding climate change-induced inflation, in order to better control the negative effects of climate change on economic growth via inflation. (TRADUÇAO NOSSA)