Modelo de procura da moeda : o caso de Moçambique

Abstract

In this degree work, a model of currency demand for Mozambique is estimated. The results of the empirical research indicate that there is a stable currency demand function in Mozambique at least in the period covered by the study - which runs from the second quarter of 1984 to the last quarter of 1999. However, this does not mean that the results achieved are definitive, especially in the period after 1999 when the conduct of monetary policy started to be made through indirect instruments - with the abolition of the quantitative credit limits (embodied in the Limits of Net Internal Assets) - as this may bring about important changes in the sensitivity of the quantity sought changes to some variables in the model. The role of interest rates in determining the amount of money sought in particular may be further strengthened. One result that should be highlighted here is the positive reaction of the demanded amount of money to the change in the rate of return on assets other than currency. This is explained by the fact that M2 itself includes deposits in foreign currency, which causes economic agents to increase the global amount of monetary balances even in situations of exchange rate depreciation or rising international interest rates. In fact, the increase in the nominal quantity of money in a situation of co-circulation of domestic and foreign currency may come only from the price effect of foreign currency, even though its quantity has not necessarily increased.