O efeito da dívida pública interna sobre a economia: caso de Moçambique 1999-2022

Abstract

This paper analyses the Effect of Domestic Public Debt on the Economy in the context of Mozambique over two decades, therefore, 1999-2022, with the aim of understanding how the dynamics of Domestic Public Debt affects key macroeconomic variables, such as GDP growth, private investment, inflation, interest rate and others. However, in methodological terms the research employs a theoretical and empirical approach, using econometric models to analyse the relationship between Domestic Public Debt and relevant economic variables. Techniques such as time series models (OLS and VAR), Granger causality analysis, variance decomposition, impulse-response function and other statistical methods were used. Regarding the main results and conclusions, the empirical approach shows that the growth of Domestic Public Debt had a significant effect on several facets of the Mozambican economy, especially on private investment and economic growth. However, the analysis revealed a positive relationship between DPI and GDP growth, while private investment showed a negative relationship with DPI. Furthermore, the research highlighted the importance of debt sustainability, the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies for the long-term economic stability of the country. In terms of recommendations, based on the results, it is recommended that the Government of Mozambique adopt prudent fiscal and monetary policies to ensure the sustainability of DPI in particular and promote a stable economic environment, as well as adopting paradigms such as Brazil, Mexico and Rwanda that implemented austerity policies while stimulating structural investments, therefore, this may include measures to control excessive debt, improve debt management and promote private investment. However, as a final consideration, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the Effect of Domestic Public Debt on the economy of Mozambique and highlights the importance of careful debt management to ensure sustainable economic growth and financial stability of the country. The conclusions and recommendations presented can guide the Government’s future policies and strategies regarding debt management and economic growth and development.(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)