O impacto da dívida externa no crescimento económico: o caso de Moçambique (2006-2021)

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the impact of external debt on economic growth in the period between 2006 and 2021 in Mozambique. This analysis comes from the fact that Mozambique reached unsustainable levels of external debt in the 1990s, reaching more than 100% and 1000% of GDP and public revenues, respectively, but the country benefited from initiatives that brought the debt to sustainable levels in 2006. External debt had a positive impact on economic growth until 2015, reaching an average of 7% growth. Over the years, the external debt, until then considered sustainable, has been increasing and is financing large infrastructure and development projects. However, between 2014 and 2016, the country was associated with the discovery of undeclared debts that had a negative impact on economic growth, decreasing from an average of 7% to approximately 3%, remaining at a lower rate until experiencing a negative growth rate in 2020 due to adverse situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which created difficulties for the country to honor its commitments, difficulties in generating revenue and increased external dependence. The results of the research show that external debt had two moments in the Mozambican economy within the period in question. Therefore, the country had a phase of economic growth at levels close to 10%, and with a sustainable increase in external debt over the years until the discovery of undeclared debts that caused a serious crisis and a negative impact on economic growth. Therefore, in the long term, external debt can have a negative impact on economic growth as it becomes unsustainable over time.(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)