Caracterização dos sistemas de tempo que influenciaram na ocorrência de precipitação extrema na zona sul de Moçambique entre os dias 23 e 24 de Março de 2024

Abstract

Mozambique, a country vulnerable to extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, droughts and floods, causing significant damage to infrastructure. The difficulty in predicting precipitation due to the complexity of climatic factors that influence the precipitation regime has directly affected several sectors, in addition to increasing the risk of natural disasters. The present work aims to characterize the weather systems that influenced extreme precipitation in southern Mozambique between March 23 and 24, 2024. To achieve this objective, daily data of observed precipitation (08:00 of the previous day to 08:00 of the next day) in the provinces of Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane were used, data from the network of Meteorological Stations of the Southern Zone were provided by the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) and hourly data (00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC) in netcdf format, of wind, relative humidity, relative vorticity, wind divergence, pressure, geopotential, K index and CAPE at the atmospheric levels of 850hPa, 700hPa 500Hpa and 200hPa were obtained from the ERA5 Reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. The results show the variation of the MCT intensity, the presence of a (COL), a CNS formed by the CJs, advection of relative humidity from the ocean to the continent, high values of K index and CAPE suggesting an unstable atmosphere. This work will help or assist meteorologists in perceiving the interaction of different synoptic systems and in predicting intense precipitation, allowing better preparation and response to extreme events.