Susceptibilidade á inundações na periferia da Cidade de Maputo: análise geo-espacial do dano potencial em infra-estruturas de ensino e aprendizagem

Abstract

This study describes the development of a flood susceptibility model for the periphery of Maputo City. The model was created using data on topography (altitude and slope), the hydrographic network, historical temperature and precipitation data, and data on soil and its use and coverage. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was crucial for consistently weighting the variables in the creation of the flood susceptibility model. The model was validated with data from the areas flooded in the year 2024. The model revealed that approximately 49% of the periphery of Maputo City has a high degree of susceptibility to flooding, mainly due to natural characteristics such as low altitude, slope, proximity to the hydrographic network, and soil type. These factors tend to be exacerbated by human intervention, which significantly contributes to the waterproofing of these areas through construction. Potential damage was considered as the impact that floods have during school lessons in basic and secondary education. In this sense, it was found that more than 45% (which corresponds to about 63 schools) of these infrastructures are located in areas with a very high degree of flood susceptibility. This study demonstrates its relevance by enabling the understanding of the degree of flood susceptibility in the periphery of Maputo, and can serve as support for strategic decision-making in urban planning and the reduction of the impacts caused by floods.