Impacto da política monetária na concessão de crédito em Moçambique (2014-2022)

Abstract

Monetary policy in Mozambique plays a central role in macroeconomic stability, directly affecting variables such as liquidity, interest rates and credit volume. This study investigates the impact of this policy on credit granting between 2014-2022, with a main focus on the Bank of Mozambique's measures especially the monetary policy interest rate (MIMO), inflation control mechanisms and influence on the financial system. It analyzes how decisions related to mandatory reserves, foreign exchange market interventions and management of the money supply reflect on the availability of credit for the economic and private sectors, especially in crisis contexts such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The study also highlights the limits of monetary action in the face of external and structural shocks to the Mozambican economy. The methodological approach adopted combines qualitative and quantitative methods. The qualitative component included bibliographic and documentary research, with sources from the Bank of Mozambique, the National Institute of Statistics and scientific literature. In the quantitative aspect, time series techniques were used with quarterly data, submitted to stationarity tests (ADF and PP), VAR model estimation, analysis of impulse-response functions, decomposition of the variance of prediction errors and Granger's causality test, supported by the EViews software. The results indicate that the MIMO rate did not present a statistically significant influence on the volume of credit, GDP growth or inflation in the period under review. The impulse-response analysis and the decomposition of variance revealed that these variables are mostly explained by their own trajectories, with monetary policy exerting a limited effect. While inflation has presented some response to MIMO over longer horizons, Granger's causality tests have reinforced the absence of strong linkages. therefore, it was not effective, in the short and medium term, to significantly influence bank credit in Mozambique in the predefined period. Thus, it can be concluded that, during the 2014-2022 period, monetary policy in Mozambique proved to be ineffective as an instrument to stimulate or restrict bank credit and economic activity in the short and medium term, reflecting possible structural limitations of the financial system, rigidity in the interest rate transmission channel, and low depth of the national credit market.