Taxas de juro de empréstimo e o volume de crédito em Moçambique: 1991 - 2023

Abstract

This study investigated the relationship between the lending interest rate and the volume of credit as a percentage of GDP in Mozambique, over the period from 1991 to 2023. Starting from the relevance of credit as an essential instrument for financial intermediation, the study sought to understand how interest rates influence credit supply, in a context marked by high interest rates and low financial inclusion. The theoretical review showed that, as predicted by classical, Keynesian, and post-Keynesian approaches, interest rates play a central role in balancing savings and investment, directly affecting consumption and financing behavior. Using an ARDL model, the empirical results confirmed a negative and statistically significant relationship between short-term interest rate changes and the volume of credit. Specifically, it was found that a 1% increase in the interest rate leads, on average, to a reduction of about 0.64% in credit as a proportion of GDP, ceteris paribus. This result is consistent with economic theory, which highlights the inhibitory effect of high interest rates on credit provision. However, the model also revealed lagged effects with mixed signs, suggesting the presence of adjustment mechanisms and institutional complexities that affect the effectiveness of the interest rate as a monetary policy instrument. Based on these findings, it is recommended to strengthen the monetary policy transmission channel, reduce operational costs in the banking sector, stimulate credit to the productive sector, improve coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, and create mechanisms to mitigate credit risk. It is also suggested that future research incorporate structural and institutional variables.