Aplicação dos modelos univariados para a análise das importações de automóveis ligeiros, no período de Janeiro de 2002 á Junho de 2008 caso: província e Cidade de Maputo

Abstract

The present work develops a model for forecasting car imports for Maputo province and city, based on data from January 2002 to June 2008. For this purpose, the univariate models developed by Box and Jenkins were applied. A literature review on some statistical forecasting models was presented, mainly the ARIMA model, with its particularities and applicability. During the period under study, the non-stationarity of the series in level was found, making it through the transformation into first difference. Of the identified models, ARIMA(O,1,1) suggested the best fit to the data, therefore, the best for the prediction. Import forecasts for the period July 2008 to March 2009 indicate an increasing trend. (TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)