Análise do impacto dos impostos nacionais no crescimento económico de Moçambique (2010-2022)

Abstract

The study aims to analyse the impact of national taxes on Mozambique’s economic growth, assessing both direct and indirect effects. The Barro endogenous growth model and the ECM model are used, applied with quarterly data from 2010 to 2022. The results show that a 100% increase in total taxes reduces economic growth by around 25%, ceteris paribus, as confirmed by studies by Castro (2006), Seward (2008), Ojede & Yamarik (2012), Dladla & Khobai (2018) and Altarawneh et al. (2020). Disaggregating taxes, a 100% increase in direct taxes reduces growth by approximately 9%, while indirect taxes do not affect growth, according to economic theory. Individually, a 100% increase in IRPC and VAT reduces growth by about 4% and 7%, respectively. While a 100% increase in ICE stimulates economic growth on average by about 3%, ceteris paribus. Personal taxes and customs duties have no impact on growth. Indirectly, only IRPC and VAT negatively affect private investment. IRPC and IRPS harm private consumption, with IRPC being the only tax that stimulates public spending. Based on these results, it is concluded that national taxes negatively affect economic growth through direct taxes and VAT, which in turn negatively affect investors and private consumers, two extremely important actors in the generation of income and domestic production and, consequently, economic growth. From this conclusion, it is recommended that the Government focus more on collecting indirect taxes and less on direct taxes, which distort the decision-making of economic agents regarding investment, savings and consumption, and thus, economic growth. This measure could broaden the tax base, increase state revenues, reduce tax evasion and informality for tax reasons(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)