Determinantes da balança comercial de Moçambique no período entre 1980 a 2005: seu comportamento e evolução no desenvolvimento econômico do país e no contexto da integração econômica regional

Abstract

This research focuses on the influence of trade balance determinants on its performance, seeking to identify how each of the determinants (Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Real Exchange Rate (TCR) and the Consumer Price Index (IPC) ) affects the balance of trade in Mozambique, in the period between 1980 and 2005 and in the context of regional integration in the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The research involves a 26-year time series, counted from 1980 to 2005, and its study essentially involved the descriptive method and an econometric analysis, seeking to find the influence of each determinant. The study essentially focused on what affects Mozambique's international trade, such as the case of the government's trade policy and other economic indicators in the context of macroeconomic convergence in SADC, seeking to compare Mozambique with other countries in the region, with greater emphasis on the Republic of Africa of the South (RSA). Even so, the work tried to find the performance of the trade balance before and after the mega projects, knowing that these have a great impact on the country's trade balance. Furthermore, the study sought to find out whether after the liberalization of the economy in 1990 there was no change in the structure of the trade balance, using the Chow test. The present study reached the conclusion that the maintenance of an effective trade policy, capable of meeting the country's wishes, thus promoting economic growth, is important to respond to market conditions, in the case of an open and borrowing economy of prices. The Mozambican trade balance is in deficit, even with mega projects. The expected signs of the multiple regression linear estimators are not fully verifiable, which suggests that the import and export models suffer from multicollinearity.