Análise da tendência da incidência e mortalidade por HIV/SIDA em Moçambique no período de 1990 a 2008

Abstract

For more than 20 years that HIV, the virus considered to cause AIDS, has been within the humanity. Sub-Saharan Africa is the region of the world most affected by this pandemic and Mozambique is one of the countries in the region with one of the highest rates of infection. This situation translates into large financial burdens for the Mozambican state, whose resources and attention they have to turn to fighting the disease, mitigating its effects and preventing it. The success of these efforts can only be measured by the slowdown in rates of new infections. (incidence) and mortality rates. This deceleration can be verified (or not) from analysis of the temporal behavior of incidence and mortality. For this job, they were used the polynomial regression models to analyze the trend of the coefficients of incidence and mortality by HIV/AIDS in the period 1990 to 2008, having been found that the cases of HIV/AIDS incidence and morality in the country present different scenarios for the 3 regions. The trend analysis was based on the 1st order polynomial model, where the incidence and mortality coefficients constituted the dependent variables (Y) and the years of calendar as independent variables (X). For the incidence coefficients, it was verified increasing trend towards the south for both sexes and stagnation (constant trend) for the central and northern regions. The mortality coefficients showed a trend growing for the 3 regions of the country.