Relação entre a temperatura da superfície do mar e a actividade ciclónica no sudoeste do Oceano Índico durante o período de 2013-2023

Abstract

With global climate change, a gradual increase in the Earth's average temperature is being observed, favoring the intensification and frequency of extreme events such as tropical cyclones. In the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO), these systems constitute important environmental phenomena, responsible for significant human and material losses, especially in coastal countries such as Mozambique and Madagascar. Despite their significant impact, tropical cyclones in this region remain less studied compared to other ocean basins. This study analyzed the relationship between Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variations and cyclonic activity in the southwestern Indian Ocean between 2013 and 2023. The main objective was to assess the extent to which SST variations influence the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones, with an emphasis on the spatial distribution, temporal trends of SSTs, and their relationship to the intensity of these systems. Reanalysis data from the ERA5 model and historical data from the IBTrACS database were used, processed with tools such as Python (via Google Colab), integrating statistical analysis and spatial visualization techniques. The spatial distribution indicated that cyclones form preferentially over regions with higher SSTs, especially in the central and northern SWIO. However, statistical analysis revealed a weak correlation between SST and maximum cyclone intensity, indicating that other atmospheric factors significantly influence their intensification. It is concluded that the progressive warming of the waters of the southwestern Indian Ocean favors cyclone formation, but their intensity is conditioned by the interaction of multiple factors. This study reinforces the importance of multidimensional approaches to climate risk monitoring and management.