Análise do efeito da estructura da dívida pública na inflação em Moçambique (2006-2024)

Abstract

This study analyses the relationship between the public debt structure and inflation in Mozambique from 2006 to 2024, exploring how the composition of domestic and foreign debt influences price stability. Using impulse-response functions (IRF) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) from the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, we seek to identify the dynamic transmission mechanisms between debt and inflation. The results show that shocks to domestic debt cause a transitory increase in inflation in the short term (approximately 0.5 percentage points), but reveal persistent contractionary effects in the medium and long term, reducing inflation by up to -2.5 percentage points after two years. In contrast, shocks to foreign debt exert a strongly disinflationary impact, reducing inflation by approximately -6 percentage points in the sixth month and up to -8 percentage points after one year, with effects that persist over the analysed horizon. Variance decomposition indicates that, although debt explains part of inflationary volatility, the largest contribution comes from shocks inherent to inflation, monetary policy, and the exchange rate. In terms of economic policy, the results suggest that inflation management in Mozambique should consider not only monetary and exchange rate variables, but also the composition of public debt as a relevant factor.