Análise da percepção do risco e dos factores associados ao tráfico de órgãos humanos na Cidade de Maputo

Abstract

Human organ trafficking constitutes one of the most serious manifestations of contemporary organized crime and represents a growing challenge for several countries, including Mozambique. Its persistence is associated with socioeconomic vulnerability, institutional fragility, and sociocultural beliefs that shape different perceptions of risk. This study aimed to analyze risk perception and the factors associated with human organ trafficking in Maputo City, integrating sociodemographic variables, latent dimensions, and institutional indicators. The research used a structured questionnaire administered to residents of the city, following procedures of descriptive statistics, Fisher’s exact test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Structural Equation Modeling, and multinomial logistic regression. The results demonstrate that sex, age, education level, poverty, unemployment, local perception, perceived severity, spiritual beliefs, and trust in justice and police institutions are significantly associated with risk perception. The Exposure dimension presented a high mean, indicating that a large proportion of participants considered contact with situations related to organ trafficking as likely. On the other hand, Institutional Trust showed low values, signaling widespread distrust in the institutions responsible for preventing and combating the phenomenon. Structural Equation Modeling presented adequate fit indices, confirming the validity of the proposed relationships among the analyzed dimensions. The multinomial logistic regression model revealed that women, individuals with higher education levels, and those who recognize poverty, unemployment, and local insecurity as aggravating factors tend to perceive the phenomenon as a moderate or high risk. Additionally, variables such as spiritual beliefs, medical purposes associated with organ trafficking, and low institutional trust showed significant effects on the odds ratios. The findings reinforce that risk perception regarding organ trafficking in Maputo City is shaped by a combination of individual, structural, and cultural factors, highlighting the need for multisectoral interventions. In practical terms, the results emphasize the urgency of strengthening security mechanisms, investing in educational programs, and promoting community awareness campaigns in order to reduce vulnerabilities and reinforce public trust in institutions.