Aplicação de séries temporais no studo da tendência da despesa pública em Moçambique - 1992/2000 e sua projecção até ao ano de 2003

Abstract

After the political instability that affected the country for about two decades, Mozambique has moved into a favorable position regarding the revival of its economy. This opportunity provided a basis for deepening the economic reforms started in the late 1980s. Political stability allowed the country's potentialities to be exploited, and the national market to be integrated into the global economy, with significant collaboration from the international community. In the late 1990s, economic growth appeared satisfactory, in double digits. However, the floods that devastated the south of the country in 2000, greatly modified the macroeconomic structure, with the resizing of financial resources to cope with this calamity. In the following two years, the Government's efforts shifted to the Central and Northern regions, in order to intervene in the floods and cyclone Delfina, respectively. For the year 2003, Mozambique's macroeconomic structure will be conditioned by mining the effects of cyclone Japhet in Inhambane Province. On the other hand, in this same year, the country will host the African Union Summit of Heads of State and Government, and the second local elections will take place. The present work was done using Time Series, with the typical case of Mozambique's Public Expenditure (1992/2000) and its forecast until 2003. In the study, only the Public Expenditure component (Current and Investment Expenditures) will be taken into account. In general, Current Expenses are those whose purpose is to guarantee the current operation of State institutions (e.g. payment of salaries and other allowances, acquisition of consumer and service goods).