Avaliação de áreas susceptíveis a ocorrência de inundações: caso de estudo o Município da Matola

Abstract

Floods are one of the most devastating natural phenomena affecting the Municipality of Matola, causing significant material damage annually and negatively impacting the lives of local communities. This study aims to assess the areas susceptible to flooding in the Municipality of Matola through the application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and multi-criteria analysis. The methodology is based on the integration of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in a GIS environment, considering conditioning factors such as altimetry, slope, precipitation, soil type, soil depth, land use and cover, and proximity to the drainage network. The data will be obtained from SRTM images, CENACARTA topographic maps, INAM rainfall data, and IIAM soil mapping. Processing will be performed in ArcGIS Pro software, using the Weighted Overlay tool for weighted overlay of the reclassified factors. The validation of the results will be carried out through fieldwork, comparison with historical flood records, and statistical analysis using a confusion matrix and Kappa coefficient. It is expected to produce a flood susceptibility map at a scale of 1:50,000, classified into five levels (Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High), which will serve as a technical tool to support territorial planning and risk management in the municipality. This study will contribute to strengthening the institutional capacity for disaster prevention and to the fulfillment of the objectives of the Sendai Framework and Sustainable Development Goals 11 and 13